10
Caitouna
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 71
Gowran Park · Edward Doran's Birthday Handicap · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA73 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | BHA73 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA67 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA68 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.37 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 11% | -0.71 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |