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12

Fortuity

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66

Gowran Park · Edward Doran's Birthday Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Career-best effort when winning over 7f at Fairyhouse in May switched to front-running tactics. Quickly back to form when fourth of 14 in handicap there (8.7f, good) in July under another attacking ride. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Sligo 06/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f21y Goo 1306/08C8C8 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 5f205y Gd 128C8 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f26y Yie 12829/09C8BHA65 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 65 · 5f Sft 133 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 65 parBHA63 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 63 · 7f111y Gd 131 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 63 par11/0563OR 63BHA63 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 63 · 7f Gd 131 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 63 parBHA67 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 67 · 7f Sft 128 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 67 par19/0667OR 67BHA67 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m160y Goo 137 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 67 par1/0767OR 67projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA674th4th0
2026-06-19LimerickBHA676th6th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA631st1st0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA632nd2nd0
2026-03-22NaasBHA6510th10th0
2025-09-29Down Royal?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0822/0319/061/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength74%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20257th13/266%33%-0.32
24/08/20259th22/10%33%+0.33
29/09/20259th40/10%27%+0.27
22/03/202610th20/10%36%+0.36
11/05/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65
28/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
19/06/20266th6/168%0%-0.68
01/07/20264th4/179%77%-0.02