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8

Neo Smart

5yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 69

Gowran Park · Edward Doran's Birthday Handicap · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a good attitude to land Dundalk handicap in February. Best turf effort of the season when fourth of 20 at the Curragh (1m, good to firm) in June before a respectable effort at Leopardstown last time. Place chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA74 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 74 · 7f Std 135 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 74 par19/1274OR 74BHA73 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 73 · 7f Std 133 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 73 parBHA73 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m Std 133 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 73 par16/0173OR 73BHA72 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 72 · 1m Std 132 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 72 parBHA77 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m Std 135 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 77 par20/0377OR 77BHA76 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 76 · 7f111y Gd 136 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 76 parBHA73 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 73 · 1m Gd 133 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 73 par24/0573OR 73BHA70 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 70 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 parBHA70 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f Goo 130 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 70 par16/0770OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA705th5th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA704th4th0
2026-05-24CurraghBHA737th7th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA767th7th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA779th9th0
2026-02-27DundalkBHA721st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1227/0224/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength84%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/202513th22/10%0%0.00
09/01/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
16/01/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
27/02/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
20/03/20269th15/261%20%-0.41
11/05/20267th7/163%54%-0.09
24/05/20267th12/137%67%+0.30
26/06/20264th22/10%84%+0.84
16/07/20265th6/168%50%-0.18