3
Tokyo Treasure
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 74
Gowran Park · Edward Doran's Birthday Handicap · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA75 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Naas | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |