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11

Sayonara

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 51

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE RACING LEGACY Handicap (0-60) · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to form when fourth of 12 in handicap at Killarney (1m, good, 40/1) 24 days ago. Now needs to back that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f Std 1333/12C8C8 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f Std 133C8 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 5f Std 13228/01C8BHA60 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 60 · 6f Std 127 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 60 parBHA58 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 132 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 58 par12/0658OR 58BHA58 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 134 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 58 parBHA54 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 54 · 6f150y Gd 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 54 par11/0754OR 54BHA54 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m30y Gd 134 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 par14/0754OR 54projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA544th4th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA548th8th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA5821th21th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA5816th16th0
2026-02-13DundalkBHA603rd3rd0
2026-01-28Dundalk?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1213/0211/0714/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20253rd22/10%75%+0.75
19/12/20258th14/126%46%+0.20
28/01/20265th20/10%67%+0.67
13/02/20263rd2/189%0%-0.89
12/06/202616th33/10%0%0.00
24/06/202621st125/10%0%0.00
11/07/20268th66/10%46%+0.46
14/07/20264th40/10%73%+0.73