5
Bellesque
2yo Filly · 9-0
Gowran Park · Coolmore Stud Churchill Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | ? | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |