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City of Dubai

2yo Colt · 9-5

Gowran Park · Coolmore Stud Churchill Stakes (Listed) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€260,000 yearling. Mehmas colt. Was clued up and made a winning debut in the style of an above-average prospect at Killarney by ½-length from Francillon in July. Yard in good form and he's open to improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m20y Gd 13313/07C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Killarney?1st10th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42