3
Sergei Diaghilev
2yo Colt · 9-5
Gowran Park · Coolmore Stud Churchill Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |