11
Anightaway
5yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 48
Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 12.4)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA48 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA51 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | BHA51 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | ? | 22th | 22th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Dundalk | BHA52 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Naas | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 16th | 125/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 27/09/2025 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/10/2025 | 10th | 300/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/11/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 06/12/2025 | 22nd | 200/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/03/2026 | 18th | 150/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 30/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |