2
Forthill
4yo Filly · 11-7 · OR 70
Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bellewstown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Galway | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 11/04/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.38 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |