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4

Liberated Light

7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 67

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up in Amateurs' Derby at Epsom in summer of 2023. Won twice over hurdles since before a creditable enough return to the Flat in 2m handicap at Tramore last time. Back over 1½m and has claims if they go a good gallop.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA103 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 103 · 2m46y Goo 159 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 103 par14/10103OR 103BHA101 @ Cork 02/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 101 · 2m4f Yie 157 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 101 parBHA98 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 98 · 2m4f Yie 154 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 98 par20/1198OR 98BHA96 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 96 · 2m3f97y Hvy 164 · below its mark02/12/2025 · OR 96 parBHA93 @ Gowran Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 93 · 2m50y Hvy 150 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 93 par7/0393OR 93BHA90 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 90 · 2m80y Goo 158 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 90 parBHA91 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 91 · 2m1f Goo 159 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 91 par16/0591OR 91BHA90 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 90 · 2m50y Goo 158 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 90 parBHA68 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 68 · 2m Goo 136 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 68 par7/0768OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07TramoreBHA685th5th0
2026-05-30TramoreBHA901st1st0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA9111th11th0
2026-04-20TramoreBHA902nd2nd0
2026-03-07Gowran ParkBHA937th7th0
2025-12-02ClonmelBHA9611th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/102/1216/057/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength51%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/202514th28/10%19%+0.19
02/11/202512th50/10%21%+0.21
20/11/202510th40/10%18%+0.18
02/12/202511th28/10%33%+0.33
07/03/20267th22/10%40%+0.40
20/04/20262nd17/255%93%+0.38
16/05/202611th11/271%17%-0.54
30/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
07/07/20265th11/142%60%+0.18