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10

Mapa

5yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 51

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y

#11

Rank

Odds

125/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Gone backwards since finishing third of 16 off 2 lb higher mark at Roscommon on reappearance in May. Admittedly she was flying too high in a competitive maiden at Galway Festival latest and hood goes back on return to calmer waters.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 57 · 1m Hvy 127 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 57 par21/1057OR 57BHA56 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 56 · 1m2f150y Std 138 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 56 parBHA58 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 58 par10/1258OR 58BHA56 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 56 · 1m2f150y Std 138 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m2f150y Std 136 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 54 par30/0154OR 54BHA53 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 53 · 1m4f17y Yie 135 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 53 parBHA53 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 53 · 1m5f Goo 135 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 53 par7/0653OR 53BHA53 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 53 · 1m4f Goo 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 51 · 1m4f Yie 140 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 51 par31/07C8OR 51projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Galway?10th10th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA5315th15th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA5315th15th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA533rd3rd0
2026-01-30DundalkBHA5410th10th0
2026-01-13DundalkBHA566th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1013/017/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/20255th50/10%81%+0.81
19/11/20252nd12/137%92%+0.55
10/12/20254th7/163%77%+0.14
13/01/20266th11/486%62%-0.24
30/01/202610th10/147%31%-0.17
18/05/20263rd22/10%87%+0.87
07/06/202615th16/116%7%-0.09
12/06/202615th18/15%13%+0.07
31/07/202610th125/10%40%+0.40