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8

Ms Messi

5yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 57

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y

#7

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Surprise winner of a similar event off 3 lb lower at Tipperary last August. Lost her way at the end of 2025, though booking of capable apprentice offers some hope of a bounce back on return from 9-month break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 25/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 12925/10C8BHA63 @ Fairyhouse 29/05/2025 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 63 · 1m2f Yie 133 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 63 parBHA62 @ Ballinrobe 23/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m5f9y Yie 132 · below its mark23/06/2025 · OR 62 par23/0662OR 62BHA59 @ Killarney 16/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m3f103y Sft 142 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 59 parBHA57 @ Gowran Park 26/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m1f110y Gd 140 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 57 par26/0757OR 57BHA54 @ Tipperary 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f115y Goo 145 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 54 parBHA60 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f46y Gd 130 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 60 par19/0860OR 60BHA59 @ Dundalk 26/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m4f Std 141 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 59 parBHA58 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 58 par5/1158OR 58projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-05DundalkBHA5810th10th0
2025-09-26DundalkBHA598th8th0
2025-08-19RoscommonBHA609th9th0
2025-08-08TipperaryBHA541st1st0
2025-07-26Gowran ParkBHA579th9th0
2025-07-16KillarneyBHA5911th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1016/0719/085/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20247th66/10%54%+0.54
29/05/202517th25/10%0%0.00
23/06/20257th66/10%54%+0.54
16/07/202511th9/153%23%-0.30
26/07/20259th12/137%33%-0.04
08/08/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
19/08/20259th11/271%27%-0.44
26/09/20258th13/266%46%-0.20
05/11/202510th15/261%25%-0.36