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6

Numidia

8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 63

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Registered first turf success in more than 2 years at Bellewstown (14.5f) before producing his best effort for some time to follow up at Down Royal (13f) latest. Hard to rule out the hat-trick in a field where recent Flat form is sparse.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m4f Std 140 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 58 par19/1258OR 58BHA57 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 57 · 2m Std 127 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 57 parBHA56 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 56 · 2m Std 139 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 56 par27/0356OR 56BHA55 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 55 · 1m5f160y Sft 137 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 55 · 1m4f180y Gd 137 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 55 par15/0555OR 55BHA55 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 55 · 1m4f Std 137 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 55 parBHA51 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m4f207y Sft 133 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 51 par20/0651OR 51BHA49 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 49 · 1m6f109y Gd 131 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 49 parBHA57 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 57 · 1m5f Goo 127 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 57 par17/0757OR 57projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Down RoyalBHA571st1st0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA491st1st0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA518th8th0
2026-05-26DundalkBHA557th7th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA5513th13th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA5512th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1222/0420/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20255th5/174%67%-0.07
16/01/20266th5/174%44%-0.29
27/03/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
22/04/202612th11/142%8%-0.34
15/05/202613th25/10%33%+0.33
26/05/20267th18/15%50%+0.45
20/06/20268th16/116%46%+0.30
02/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
17/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24