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9

Vervain

4yo Filly · 10-4 · OR 53

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE COMMITMENT TO IRISH RACING (Ladies) Handicap · 1m 4f 100y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a 3-y-o handicap at Cork last July for Joseph Murphy. Stepped forward from reappearance when 1½ lengths fourth in big-field Killarney handicap latest. Still 2 lb below her winning mark and fancied to go well on just her third start for current yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 59 · 1m2f Gd 128 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 59 par6/0659OR 59BHA59 @ Leopardstown 12/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m1f Sft 130 · beat its mark12/06/2025 · OR 59 parBHA53 @ Naas 05/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 53 · 1m2f84y Goo 133 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 53 par5/0753OR 53BHA55 @ Cork 25/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 55 · 1m4f Goo 135 · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 55 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 15/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 59 par15/0859OR 59BHA57 @ Navan 06/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 57 · 1m2f10y Gd 134 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 57 parBHA56 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 18th of 25 · OR 56 · 1m2f Hvy 122 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 56 par21/1056OR 56BHA53 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m4f Goo 137 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 53 parBHA53 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 53 · 1m3f103y Gd 135 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 53 par15/0753OR 53projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA534th4th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA534th4th0
2025-10-21CurraghBHA5618th18th0
2025-09-06NavanBHA5714th14th0
2025-08-15DundalkBHA599th9th0
2025-07-25CorkBHA551st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0625/0721/1015/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/202514th22/10%24%+0.24
12/06/20257th25/10%50%+0.50
05/07/20253rd18/15%83%+0.78
25/07/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
15/08/20259th6/168%38%-0.30
06/09/202514th14/126%28%+0.01
21/10/202518th40/10%29%+0.29
07/07/20264th12/137%73%+0.36
15/07/20264th14/126%79%+0.52