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Tropical Sands

3yo Filly · 8-13

Haydock · Zyn Pole Position EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 42y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise amidst inexperience when reaching the frame in novices at Lingfield (1m, all-weather) and Newbury (9f, good to soft) at the start of the summer. Open to further progress with 1¼m likely to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12412/0544 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m1f GS 12811/064projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11Newbury43rd4th−1
2026-05-12Lingfield44th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0511/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 3
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength35%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
11/06/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27