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Caph Star

7yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 74

Haydock · Zyn In The Moment Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained first turf success at Nottingham (1¼m) in April and mostly creditable efforts in defeat since, including placing over 1¼m at York and Newbury under Harry Rimell on his last 2 outings. Stamina not assured up markedly in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 77 par3/124OR 775 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 73 · 1m Sta 133 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 70 par1/045OR 705 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f50y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 73 par4/055OR 735 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m2f Gd 133 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m2f50y Goo 133 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 73 par3/065OR 734 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 72 · 1m2f56y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Newbury 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m2f GF 154 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 72 par23/075OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Newbury52nd2nd0
2026-06-27York43rd2nd+1
2026-06-03Nottingham55th5th0
2026-05-15Newmarket57th7th0
2026-05-04Kempton53rd3rd0
2026-04-18Nottingham51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1218/043/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/202510th66/10%10%+0.10
18/03/20268th16/116%42%+0.26
01/04/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
18/04/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/05/20263rd5/287%78%-0.09
15/05/20267th11/271%14%-0.57
03/06/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
27/06/20263rd16/116%85%+0.69
23/07/20262nd3/184%86%+0.02