4
Undercover Affair
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 82
Haydock · Zyn Pacesetter Cup Nursery · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 1 | 8th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength5%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 79% | -0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |