9
Aphra Behn
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 70
Haydock · Zyn Strong Stride EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/13
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 89% | -0.06 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 8/13 | 97% | 63% | -0.34 |