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Distinct Spirit

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 74

Haydock · Find Your Zyn Moment Stride Handicap · 6f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very lightly-raced 6-y-o who is on a hat-trick after small-field wins at Ffos Las and Lingfield (apprentice race) in the last week. Races off the same mark as Lingfield so another prominent showing seems likely.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 13/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f213y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS13/0744 @ Thirsk 03/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f218y Goo 143 · HIGHER CLASS3/0844 @ Newmarket 20/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 76 par20/094OR 764 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 76 · 1m GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 76 par9/074OR 765 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 75 · 1m3y GF 135 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 75 par23/075OR 755 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 75 · 7f80y Goo 142 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 75 par28/075OR 755 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 74 · 7f135y Goo 146 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 74 par1/085OR 74projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Lingfield51st1st0
2026-07-28Ffos Las51st1st0
2026-07-23Yarmouth53rd3rd0
2026-07-09Newbury43rd2nd+1
2025-10-06Yarmouth4+1
2025-09-20Newmarket45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/079/071/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20241st22/10%100%+1.00
03/08/20245th17/255%56%+0.00
20/09/20255th20/10%67%+0.67
09/07/20263rd50/10%82%+0.82
23/07/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
28/07/20261st2/799%100%+0.02
01/08/20261st5/493%100%+0.07