Tokyo Joe
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 70
Haydock · Find Your Zyn Moment Stride Handicap · 6f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 7/4 | 91% | 13% | -0.78 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 84% | +0.32 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |