1
Alibi
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 87
Monmouth Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 70% | -0.16 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |