4
Olatz
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 79
Monmouth Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |