2
River Empress
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84
Monmouth Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |