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2

Admiral's Wave

7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 84

Monmouth Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 30/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 90 · 1m39y Fas 120 · beat its mark30/03/2025 · OR 90 par30/03C8OR 90C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 23/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m39y Fas 116 · below its mark23/04/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 11/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 89 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark11/05/2025 · OR 89 par11/05C8OR 89C8 @ Monmouth Park 27/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 121 · beat its mark27/06/2025 · OR 91 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 01/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 93 · 1m Gd 121 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 93 par1/08C8OR 93C8 @ Monmouth Park 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 121 · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 91 parC7 @ Monmouth Park 01/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 1m70y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 92 par1/09C7OR 92C6 @ Monmouth Park 13/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 91 parC5 @ Penn National 13/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 96 · 1m70y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 96 par13/11C5OR 96projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-13Penn National?3rd0th+3
2025-09-13Monmouth Park?4th2nd+2
2025-09-01Monmouth Park?1st0th+1
2025-08-17Monmouth Park?1st1st0
2025-08-01Monmouth Park?7th7th0
2025-06-27Monmouth Park?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0327/061/0913/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
23/04/20253rd12/137%67%+0.30
11/05/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
27/06/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
01/08/20257th7/282%0%-0.82
17/08/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
01/09/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
13/09/20254th8/158%50%-0.08
13/11/20253rd9/153%75%+0.22