6
Duck Duck Goose
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 58
Monmouth Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |