1
Venezuelan Triumph
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 71
Monmouth Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Meadowlands | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |