Admiral Mo
4yo Colt · 8-7
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Handicap · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 16/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |