Eldest Son
6yo Gelding · 8-12
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Handicap · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | -2th | +7 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |