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5yo Gelding · 8-10
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Handicap · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | -3th | +7 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |