2
Ruse
8yo Gelding · 8-7
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Handicap · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 20/06/2026 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |