Tocayo
5yo Horse · 8-6
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 18/05/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 24/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |