3
Two's A Crowd
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Monmouth Park · Race 4 - Starter Handicap · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/6
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |