4
Complex Music
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-12-31 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |