6
Guapo Again
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |