5
Kaz Sweet Heist
7yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 80
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-11-21 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-05 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 07/09/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |