3
Lord Berrier
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97
Monmouth Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 28/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |