3
Ronda World
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 44
Monmouth Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |