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6

Approaching Dawn

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 51

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap · 1m 208y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regular slow starter who got off the mark in handicap here (1m) in June. Doubled his tally in minor event at Ayr last month, but wasn't in the same form in race won by Samra Star back at Ayr 11 days ago. Needs things to drop right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 45 · 7f15y Goo 126 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 45 par29/046OR 456 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 45 · 7f50y Goo 117 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m68y Gd 121 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 45 par15/056OR 456 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 45 · 1m2y Gd 127 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m Sft 127 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 46 par19/066OR 466 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 46 · 1m2y Gd 120 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 46 · 1m208y Goo 118 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 46 par30/066OR 466 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 46 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 51 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 51 par27/076OR 51projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr68th8th0
2026-07-05Ayr61st1st0
2026-06-30Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-06-22Musselburgh63rd3rd0
2026-06-19Ayr69th9th0
2026-06-06Musselburgh61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/046/0630/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength15%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20268th28/10%30%+0.30
05/05/20267th40/10%0%0.00
15/05/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
06/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
19/06/20269th4/179%0%-0.79
22/06/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
30/06/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
05/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
27/07/20268th12/137%13%-0.24