1
Falcon Nine
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 58
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap · 1m 208y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 20/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 90% | +0.85 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |