4
Gemini Man
8yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 53
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap · 1m 208y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hexham | 5 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 31/01/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 23/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |