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2

Samra Star

5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 53

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap · 1m 208y

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful at Wolverhampton in February and built on her runner-up effort over this C&D in May when gaining a first turf win at Ayr (1m) 11 days ago. Did well to overcome a pace bias last time, so she could be thereabouts under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m5y Std 133 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 63 par20/016OR 636 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Wolverhampton 16/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 60 par16/025OR 606 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m13y Std 132 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 62 par10/036OR 625 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m208y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 55 par26/045OR 556 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 53 · 1m208y Gd 128 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 53 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 53 par27/076OR 53projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr61st1st0
2026-05-21Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-04-26Musselburgh58th7th+1
2026-03-23Wolverhampton53rd2nd+1
2026-03-10Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-03-04Southwell66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/014/0326/0427/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/01/20268th18/15%22%+0.17
05/02/20267th40/10%45%+0.45
16/02/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
04/03/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
10/03/20264th9/153%63%+0.10
23/03/20263rd8/158%50%-0.08
26/04/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
21/05/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
27/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00