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3

Toy Soldier

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 55

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Brut Rose Handicap · 1m 208y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed fair form in handicaps in Ireland, runner-up at around 7f both starts in June. Making first run since leaving Maurice Ahern, never involved when eighth of 10 at Ayr (1¼m) 18 days ago, but he's on a workable mark with blinkers now back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA69 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 69 · 7f Hvy 139 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 69 par20/1069OR 69BHA66 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 66 · 1m2f150y Std 133 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 66 parBHA62 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Std 132 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 62 par16/0162OR 62BHA57 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 26 · OR 57 · 1m Hvy 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 57 parBHA53 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 53 · 1m31y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 53 par12/0553OR 53BHA52 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 52 · 7f Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 52 parBHA54 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 54 · 7f94y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 54 par30/0654OR 546 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f50y Gd 137 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m2f GF 137 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 57 par20/076OR 57projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Ayr68th8th0
2026-07-05Ayr66th6th0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA542nd1st+1
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA522nd1st+1
2026-05-12KillarneyBHA534th3rd+1
2026-03-15CurraghBHA5713th13th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1015/0330/0620/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/202514th100/10%13%+0.13
17/12/202514th50/10%0%0.00
16/01/202613th125/10%8%+0.08
15/03/202613th80/10%52%+0.52
12/05/20264th4/179%79%-0.00
19/06/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
30/06/20262nd3/184%93%+0.09
05/07/20266th5/493%50%-0.43
20/07/20268th5/174%22%-0.51