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4

Amantha

2yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 62

Musselburgh · Copper Blossom Ladies Day Nursery Selling Handicap · 7f 15y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on the drop into selling company when scoring over C&D in June. Looked in command for most of way (collared final strides) in 7.5f Beverley nursery next time but underperformed in race won by Bluestone Lady over C&D latest. Bounce back called for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 12815/0455 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 12823/0454 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/0544 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS5/0643 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS22/0636 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 59 · 7f96y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par4/076OR 596 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 7f15y Gd 133 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 62 par31/076OR 62projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh63rd4th−1
2026-07-04Beverley62nd3rd−1
2026-06-22Musselburgh31st-1th+2
2026-06-05Musselburgh46th5th+1
2026-05-27Beverley46th5th+1
2026-04-23Beverley58th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/045/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/202611th28/10%0%0.00
23/04/20268th66/10%13%+0.13
27/05/20266th80/10%29%+0.29
05/06/20266th25/10%0%0.00
22/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
04/07/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
31/07/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10