5
Bella Lucia
2yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 61
Musselburgh · Copper Blossom Ladies Day Nursery Selling Handicap · 7f 15y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |