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3

Bluestone Lady

2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 61

Musselburgh · Copper Blossom Ladies Day Nursery Selling Handicap · 7f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed previous promise to get off the mark in 7-runner nursery at this C&D (good to firm) 7 days ago by ½ length from Bigalo, helped by being held up in strongly-run race. Respected under a 6-lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 12515/0454 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Std 1227/0555 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 1284 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f182y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS15/0644 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 59 · 7f14y Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f GF 133 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 63 par14/076OR 636 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 61 · 7f15y Gd 132 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 61 par31/076OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh61st2nd−1
2026-07-14Leicester610th11th−1
2026-06-25Newcastle42nd1st+1
2026-06-15Carlisle44th3rd+1
2026-05-18Redcar56th6th0
2026-05-07Southwell52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0418/0514/0731/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20268th9/276%30%-0.46
25/04/20266th5/287%17%-0.70
07/05/20262nd25/10%80%+0.80
18/05/20266th18/15%64%+0.59
15/06/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
25/06/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
14/07/202610th9/153%0%-0.53
31/07/20261st18/15%100%+0.95