11
Ashen
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y
#9
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 65% | +0.49 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 70% | -0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 35% | -0.07 |