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7

Augustus Gloop

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 82

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Newcastle (6f) final start last year and good second on handicap debut at Wolverhampton in January. After a couple of lesser efforts, got back on track following a break (had been gelded) when fourth of 9 at Wolverhampton (7f) 3 weeks ago. Interesting on turf debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 20/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f Sta 13320/0845 @ Lingfield 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f1y Std 13313/0953 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 6f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS28/0934 @ Wolverhampton 06/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 82 · 6f20y Std 132 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 82 par6/014OR 822 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 82 · 6f Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 82 par16/012OR 824 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 135 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 84 par4/034OR 844 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 83 par17/074OR 83projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Wolverhampton44th4th0
2026-03-04Kempton47th7th0
2026-01-16Newcastle26th4th+2
2026-01-06Wolverhampton42nd2nd0
2025-09-28Newcastle31st0th+1
2025-09-13Lingfield52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/086/0117/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20255th11/142%56%+0.13
13/09/20252nd15/261%90%+0.29
28/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
06/01/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
16/01/20266th10/382%50%-0.32
04/03/20267th5/174%14%-0.59
17/07/20264th6/168%63%-0.06