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4

Eagle Bay

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 85

Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising third on debut for Ed Walker last autumn. Impressed in making it 2-2 for current yard this year, following up his Thirsk success with another dominant all-the-way win at Chester 6 weeks ago. Can make another bold bid now handicapping, though has widest draw to overcome.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 13118/1055 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 1305/0653 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 80 · 7f127y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 par27/063OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Chester31st0th+1
2026-06-05Thirsk51st2nd−1
2025-10-18Catterick53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/105/0627/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20253rd6/168%78%+0.09
05/06/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
27/06/20261st5/493%100%+0.07