2
Gweedore
9yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 80
Musselburgh · Champagne Pommery Cuvee Louise Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 15y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Musselburgh | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-05 | Musselburgh | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/10/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 17/04/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 13/06/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/07/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |